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CHI @ CAR
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
Model: CAR by -2.6 (39% win prob) · Market: CHI by 3.0
Moneyline pick: CHI (61% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: CAR +3.0 (-108) LOW Confidence†
Low-confidence lean on CAR (+3 at home) -- Chicago still profiles as the better team by ELO and recent efficiency, so this is a thin value play on the number rather than a pick of the better team.
- Chicago carries a 96-point ELO advantage over Carolina (1493 vs 1397), and pre-game ELO alone gives Carolina just a 42% win probability.
- Chicago has also been more efficient on the ground recently (+0.007 rushing EPA/play vs -0.182) and has a higher explosive-play rate (13% vs 11%) over the last 8 games.
- Chicago has played at a faster pace too (27.0s vs 29.2s per play), but the model still sees Carolina as live to cover this small a number.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression30%
Random Forest36%
XGBoost30%
LightGBM40%
Extra Trees39%
TB @ CIN
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
Model: CIN by +3.8 (53% win prob) · Market: CIN by 3.5
Moneyline pick: CIN (53% win prob) LOW Confidence†
Spread pick: CIN -3.5 (-110) LOW Confidence†
Slim, low-confidence lean on CIN to cover as home favorites -- Tampa Bay actually carries the larger ELO edge, but Cincinnati's better recent offensive success rate and pass rush give it a marginal case to justify the number.
- Tampa Bay holds a 27-point ELO advantage (1518 vs 1491), the largest single factor working against Cincinnati here.
- Cincinnati has still been more efficient recently: a better offensive success rate (47% vs 44%) and pass-rush pressure rate (17% vs 12%) over the last 8 games.
- Cincinnati also has the rushing efficiency edge (+0.007 EPA/play vs -0.064) and has covered the spread in exactly half of its last 8 games.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression52%
Random Forest53%
XGBoost54%
LightGBM43%
Extra Trees57%
NO @ DET
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
Model: DET by +5.4 (61% win prob) · Market: DET by 7.0
Moneyline pick: DET (61% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: NO +7.0 (-110) LOW Confidence†
Recommended wager: $6.07 (1.3% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 55%
Low-confidence lean on NO to cover as big underdogs -- Detroit is still the clearly better team by ELO, but New Orleans' modest edges in rushing efficiency and explosive-plays-allowed are enough for the model to think the current 7-point number is too large.
- Detroit carries a 137-point ELO advantage (1579 vs 1442) and a pre-game win probability of 74%, so this remains a clear favorite-underdog matchup.
- New Orleans has had the better rushing efficiency recently (-0.116 EPA/play vs -0.134) and has allowed fewer explosive plays (10% vs 13%) over the last 8 games.
- Detroit still holds the explosive-play-rate edge on offense (15% vs 12%), but not enough, in the model's view, to fully justify a full touchdown spread.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression62%
Random Forest61%
XGBoost66%
LightGBM77%
Extra Trees59%
BUF @ HOU
Sun Sep 13, 2:00 PM EDT
Model: HOU by +6.4 (48% win prob) · Market: BUF by 1.5
Moneyline pick: BUF (52% win prob) LOW Confidence†
Spread pick: HOU +1.5 (-110) HIGH Confidence†
Recommended wager: $51.57 (10.7% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 73%
High-confidence pick on HOU to cover as home underdogs -- the market only favors Buffalo by 1.5 points, and Houston's notably faster recent pace is enough for the model to back the home dog covering despite Buffalo's broader statistical edge.
- Buffalo enters with more of the traditional efficiency edges: a 61-point ELO advantage (1626 vs 1565), the better recent offensive success rate (50% vs 41%), and edges in rushing (+0.070 vs -0.167 EPA/play) and early-down (+0.097 vs -0.119) efficiency.
- Houston's standout data point is tempo -- the Texans have played at a notably faster pace recently (27.5s vs 31.5s per snap).
- With the market favoring Buffalo by only 1.5 points, the model sees enough value to back Houston to cover as the home underdog.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression47%
Random Forest42%
XGBoost54%
LightGBM59%
Extra Trees44%
BAL @ IND
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
Model: IND by -6.6 (37% win prob) · Market: BAL by 3.5
Moneyline pick: BAL (63% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: BAL -3.5 (-110) MEDIUM Confidence†
Recommended wager: $17.70 (3.7% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 59%
Medium-confidence pick on BAL to cover as road favorites -- the Ravens carry a big statistical edge in ELO and rushing efficiency, and the model thinks the market's 3.5-point number undersells how lopsided this one is.
- Baltimore holds a 102-point ELO advantage (1577 vs 1475), and pre-game ELO gives Indianapolis just a 41% win probability.
- Baltimore has also been much more efficient on the ground recently (+0.111 EPA/play vs -0.116) over the last 8 games.
- Indianapolis' case rests mostly on red-zone efficiency -- a 69% touchdown rate compared to Baltimore's 40% -- and a more pass-heavy approach overall (60% vs 50%).
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression26%
Random Forest37%
XGBoost33%
LightGBM31%
Extra Trees38%
CLE @ JAX
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
Model: JAX by -2.4 (70% win prob) · Market: JAX by 8.5
Moneyline pick: JAX (70% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: CLE +8.5 (-110) HIGH Confidence†
Recommended wager: $69.40 (14.5% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 80%
High-confidence lean on CLE to cover as big road underdogs -- Jacksonville still profiles as the better team across the board, but the model doesn't think a 71%-win-probability team deserves a full 8.5-point line, making the Browns getting all those points the value side.
- Jacksonville has the edge in nearly every underlying measure: pre-game ELO gives the Jaguars a 71% win probability, backed by a 112-point ELO advantage (1524 vs 1413).
- Jacksonville has also been more efficient offensively (+0.080 EPA/play vs -0.231, a 45% vs 35% success rate) and has leaned into a more pass-heavy approach in neutral game scripts (64% vs 47%).
- None of that is disputed -- the model's disagreement with the market is about magnitude, not direction, and it isn't willing to lay a full 8.5 points on it.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression78%
Random Forest75%
XGBoost69%
LightGBM69%
Extra Trees73%
ATL @ PIT
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT
Model: PIT by +1.0 (54% win prob) · Market: PIT by 6.0
Moneyline pick: PIT (54% win prob) LOW Confidence†
Spread pick: ATL +6.0 (-110) MEDIUM Confidence†
Recommended wager: $31.53 (6.6% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 65%
Medium-confidence lean on ATL to cover as road underdogs -- Pittsburgh is still the stronger team by ELO, but Atlanta's edges in offensive success rate and explosive plays make the model think a 6-point line is more than the Steelers deserve.
- Pittsburgh holds the ELO edge (a 60-point advantage, 1508 vs 1447) and a 64% pre-game win probability.
- Atlanta has the better recent offensive success rate (44% vs 42%) and explosive-play rate (13% vs 11%) over the last 8 games.
- Pittsburgh's defense has been marginally better at limiting success rate (42% allowed vs 43%), but not enough, in the model's view, to justify laying a full 6 points.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression46%
Random Forest57%
XGBoost64%
LightGBM67%
Extra Trees52%
NYJ @ TEN
Sun Sep 13, 2:00 PM EDT
Model: TEN by -1.3 (48% win prob) · Market: TEN by 1.5
Moneyline pick: NYJ (52% win prob) LOW Confidence†
Spread pick: NYJ +1.5 (-110) LOW Confidence†
Recommended wager: $15.53 (3.2% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 59%
Low-confidence lean on NYJ to cover as home underdogs -- Tennessee has the sharper pass rush and explosive-play numbers, but the Titans have covered just 12% of their last 8 spreads, and the model doesn't think a short favorite's role changes that.
- Tennessee has the edge in recent pass-rush pressure (15% vs 9%) and explosive-play rate (9% vs 7%) over the last 8 games.
- The Jets have played at a faster pace recently (27.1s vs 28.9s per play).
- Tennessee has covered the spread in just 12% of its last 8 games, a cold recent trend working against them as favorites here.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression40%
Random Forest52%
XGBoost36%
LightGBM35%
Extra Trees53%
ARI @ LAC
Sun Sep 13, 7:25 PM EDT
Model: LAC by -2.9 (53% win prob) · Market: LAC by 9.5
Moneyline pick: LAC (53% win prob) LOW Confidence†
Spread pick: ARI +9.5 (-110) HIGH Confidence†
Recommended wager: $77.23 (16.1% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 83%
High-confidence lean on ARI to cover as big road underdogs -- the Chargers are still the stronger team by ELO, but Arizona's edges in offensive efficiency and explosive plays make a 9.5-point number look too steep to the model.
- The Chargers carry a 70% pre-game win probability by ELO, the largest factor working against Arizona.
- Arizona has been the more efficient offense recently, with better EPA per play (-0.031 vs -0.119) and a higher explosive-play rate (13% vs 9%) over the last 8 games.
- Arizona has also leaned heavily pass-first, both in neutral game scripts (75% vs 59%) and overall (74% vs 63%).
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression56%
Random Forest54%
XGBoost41%
LightGBM45%
Extra Trees53%
MIA @ LV
Sun Sep 13, 7:25 PM EDT
Model: LV by -7.8 (40% win prob) · Market: LV by 3.0
Moneyline pick: MIA (60% win prob) LOW Confidence†
Spread pick: MIA +3.0 (-105) HIGH Confidence†
Recommended wager: $70.09 (14.6% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 80%
High-confidence pick on MIA to cover as road underdogs -- Miami actually rates as the better team by ELO despite Las Vegas being favored by the market, with a 98-point ELO edge and better rushing efficiency giving the model real conviction here.
- Miami carries a 98-point ELO advantage over Las Vegas (1464 vs 1367), and pre-game ELO gives the Raiders just a 42% win probability.
- Miami has also had much better rushing efficiency recently (-0.043 EPA/play vs -0.308) over the last 8 games.
- Las Vegas has played at a faster pace (28.7s vs 31.4s per play) and leaned more pass-heavy in neutral scripts (62% vs 46%), but the model sees Miami as the sounder team here despite being priced as a home underdog.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression23%
Random Forest43%
XGBoost40%
LightGBM58%
Extra Trees37%
GB @ MIN
Sun Sep 13, 5:25 PM EDT
Model: MIN by +10.3 (53% win prob) · Market: MIN by 1.5
Moneyline pick: MIN (53% win prob) LOW Confidence†
Spread pick: MIN -1.5 (-110) HIGH Confidence†
Recommended wager: $57.24 (11.9% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 75%
High-confidence pick on MIN to cover at home -- Green Bay has the sharper passing numbers, but Minnesota's rushing efficiency and its defense's knack for limiting explosive plays give the model real conviction that a 1.5-point line badly undersells the Vikings.
- Green Bay has the passing efficiency edge (+0.232 EPA/play vs -0.204) and a higher explosive-play rate (14% vs 11%) over the last 8 games.
- Minnesota has been the better rushing team (-0.017 EPA/play vs -0.189) and its defense has allowed fewer explosive plays (9% vs 13%).
- Minnesota's broader offensive efficiency edge (+0.090 EPA/play vs -0.134) rounds out the case for a bigger margin than the market's 1.5-point line implies.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression49%
Random Forest52%
XGBoost55%
LightGBM61%
Extra Trees52%
WAS @ PHI
Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT
Model: PHI by +6.2 (63% win prob) · Market: PHI by 6.0
Moneyline pick: PHI (63% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: PHI -6.0 (-110) LOW Confidence†
Medium-confidence pick on PHI to cover at home -- the Eagles hold a commanding edge across ELO, pass-heavy game script, and defensive efficiency, though the model's edge over the market number itself is thin.
- Philadelphia carries a 149-point ELO advantage over Washington (1602 vs 1453) and a 75% pre-game win probability.
- Philadelphia's defense has been excellent, with a better EPA allowed per play (-0.066 vs +0.184) and a lower explosive-play rate allowed (9% vs 15%) over the last 8 games.
- Philadelphia has also leaned pass-heavy in neutral game scripts (65% vs 48%).
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression53%
Random Forest65%
XGBoost73%
LightGBM85%
Extra Trees66%
DAL @ NYG
Sun Sep 13, 8:20 PM EDT
Model: NYG by -4.1 (44% win prob) · Market: DAL by 3.0
Moneyline pick: DAL (56% win prob) LOW Confidence†
Spread pick: DAL -3.0 (-105) LOW Confidence†
Recommended wager: $5.64 (1.2% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 54%
Low-confidence lean on DAL to cover as road favorites -- the Cowboys hold the edges in ELO, red-zone efficiency, and recent head-to-head scoring margin, even if the number itself is close to a coinflip in the model's eyes.
- Dallas carries a 65-point ELO advantage (1473 vs 1408) and the better red-zone touchdown rate (49% vs 40%) over the last 8 games.
- Over their last 6 meetings, Dallas has outscored the Giants by an average of 11.7 points.
- New York's lone edge is rushing efficiency (-0.024 EPA/play vs -0.037), not enough for the model to move off Dallas here.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression41%
Random Forest41%
XGBoost39%
LightGBM50%
Extra Trees44%
DEN @ KC
Mon Sep 14, 9:15 PM EDT
Model: KC by -0.7 (46% win prob) · Market: KC by 2.5
Moneyline pick: DEN (54% win prob) LOW Confidence†
Spread pick: DEN +2.5 (-108) MEDIUM Confidence†
Recommended wager: $19.63 (4.1% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 60%
Medium-confidence lean on DEN to cover as road underdogs -- Denver has been the more efficient offense recently by success rate and EPA per play, and the model doesn't think Kansas City's 2.5-point favorite tag is fully earned.
- Denver has the better recent offensive success rate (44% vs 38%) and offensive EPA per play (+0.014 vs -0.121) over the last 8 games.
- Denver also has a slight edge in explosive-play rate (10% vs 8%).
- Kansas City's advantages are narrower -- a faster recent pace (27.1s vs 29.0s per play) and a marginal rushing-efficiency edge (-0.114 vs -0.125 EPA/play).
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression43%
Random Forest41%
XGBoost45%
LightGBM50%
Extra Trees47%
DET @ BUF
Thu Sep 17, 8:15 PM EDT
Model: BUF by +9.6 (69% win prob) · Market: BUF by 3.0
Moneyline pick: BUF (69% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: BUF -3.0 (-112) MEDIUM Confidence†
Recommended wager: $41.88 (8.7% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 69%
Medium-confidence pick on BUF to cover at home -- Buffalo's edges in offensive EPA and rushing efficiency give the model more conviction than the market's 3-point line reflects.
- Buffalo carries a 47-point ELO advantage over Detroit (1626 vs 1579) and a 62% pre-game win probability.
- Buffalo has been the more efficient offense recently, in both overall EPA per play (+0.162 vs -0.004) and rushing EPA per play (+0.070 vs -0.134).
- Buffalo is also playing under a new head coach this season, a contextual factor the model flags alongside the statistical edges.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression69%
Random Forest76%
XGBoost77%
LightGBM82%
Extra Trees73%
CAR @ ATL
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM EDT
Model: ATL by +4.5 (65% win prob) · Market: ATL by 1.5
Moneyline pick: ATL (65% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: ATL -1.5 (-110) MEDIUM Confidence†
Recommended wager: $17.13 (3.6% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 59%
Medium-confidence pick on ATL to cover at home -- the Falcons hold the ELO and rushing-efficiency edges, and the model thinks a 1.5-point line undersells how much better they've projected recently.
- Atlanta carries a 51-point ELO advantage over Carolina (1447 vs 1397) and a 63% pre-game win probability.
- Atlanta has also had the better rushing efficiency recently (-0.092 EPA/play vs -0.182) and a faster pace (28.4s vs 29.2s per play).
- Carolina's case rests mainly on leaning more pass-heavy overall (65% vs 53%), which hasn't been enough to close the gap in the model's view.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression67%
Random Forest67%
XGBoost73%
LightGBM79%
Extra Trees66%
NO @ BAL
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM EDT
Model: BAL by +5.3 (67% win prob) · Market: BAL by 7.5
Moneyline pick: BAL (67% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: NO +7.5 (-110) LOW Confidence†
Recommended wager: $10.94 (2.3% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 57%
Low-confidence lean on NO to cover as big road underdogs -- Baltimore is clearly the better team by ELO and rushing efficiency, but the model doesn't think that translates into a full 7.5-point margin.
- Baltimore carries a 136-point ELO advantage over New Orleans (1577 vs 1442) and a 73% pre-game win probability.
- Baltimore has also had the better rushing efficiency (+0.111 EPA/play vs -0.116) and explosive-play rate (14% vs 12%) over the last 8 games.
- New Orleans' one edge is a faster recent pace (27.5s vs 29.7s per play), enough for the model to see value in the Saints simply covering a large number.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression69%
Random Forest69%
XGBoost81%
LightGBM80%
Extra Trees66%
MIN @ CHI
Sun Sep 20, 2:00 PM EDT
Model: CHI by +2.0 (56% win prob) · Market: CHI by 3.0
Moneyline pick: CHI (56% win prob) LOW Confidence†
Spread pick: MIN +3.0 (-110) LOW Confidence†
Recommended wager: $2.09 (0.4% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 53%
Low-confidence lean on MIN to cover as road underdogs -- the Vikings hold the ELO and pass-rush edges, and the model doesn't think Chicago's recent ATS success fully offsets that.
- Minnesota carries a 47-point ELO advantage over Chicago (1539 vs 1493) and the better pass-rush pressure rate (21% vs 13%) over the last 8 games.
- Minnesota's defense has also allowed a lower success rate (40% vs 45%).
- Chicago has played at a faster pace (27.0s vs 30.4s per play) and has covered the spread in 62% of its last 8 games, but the model still gives Minnesota the edge here.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression48%
Random Forest61%
XGBoost55%
LightGBM48%
Extra Trees64%
CIN @ HOU
Sun Sep 20, 2:00 PM EDT
Model: HOU by +14.6 (61% win prob) · Market: HOU by 2.5
Moneyline pick: HOU (61% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: HOU -2.5 (-110) HIGH Confidence†
Recommended wager: $75.76 (15.8% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 82%
High-confidence pick on HOU to cover at home -- the Texans' ELO edge and faster recent pace give the model real conviction that a 2.5-point favorite tag is far too modest here.
- Houston carries a 75-point ELO advantage over Cincinnati (1565 vs 1491) and a 66% pre-game win probability.
- Houston has also played at a faster pace recently (27.5s vs 29.3s per play).
- Cincinnati's case rests on better rushing efficiency (+0.007 EPA/play vs -0.167) and offensive success rate (47% vs 41%), but the model sees Houston as a far bigger favorite than the market number suggests.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression64%
Random Forest61%
XGBoost74%
LightGBM72%
Extra Trees59%
PIT @ NE
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM EDT
Model: NE by +7.2 (65% win prob) · Market: NE by 4.5
Moneyline pick: NE (65% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: NE -4.5 (-108) LOW Confidence†
Recommended wager: $15.88 (3.3% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 58%
Low-confidence pick on NE to cover at home -- the Patriots hold a modest ELO edge, though Pittsburgh actually rates as the better team once strength of schedule is factored in, keeping the model's conviction limited.
- New England carries a 25-point ELO advantage over Pittsburgh (1533 vs 1508) and the better explosive-play rate (13% vs 11%) over the last 8 games.
- Pittsburgh has actually rated as the better team once opponent strength is factored in, outrating New England by 3.1 points of opponent-adjusted margin (+0.1 vs -3.0).
- New England has the edges in pass-rush pressure (21% vs 12%), while Pittsburgh's lone efficiency edge is rushing (-0.019 EPA/play vs -0.131).
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression63%
Random Forest68%
XGBoost78%
LightGBM73%
Extra Trees68%
GB @ NYJ
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM EDT
Model: NYJ by -7.0 (31% win prob) · Market: GB by 5.5
Moneyline pick: GB (69% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: GB -5.5 (-108) LOW Confidence†
Recommended wager: $6.66 (1.4% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 55%
Low-confidence pick on GB to cover as road favorites -- the Packers hold a lopsided edge across ELO, passing efficiency, and explosiveness, even if the projected margin is close enough to the market number to keep confidence modest.
- Green Bay carries a 188-point ELO advantage over the Jets (1554 vs 1367), and pre-game ELO gives New York just a 30% win probability.
- Green Bay has the passing efficiency edge (+0.232 EPA/play vs -0.220) and a much higher explosive-play rate (14% vs 7%) over the last 8 games.
- Green Bay's offensive success rate is also well ahead (47% vs 38%).
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression20%
Random Forest27%
XGBoost15%
LightGBM14%
Extra Trees33%
CLE @ TB
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM EDT
Model: TB by -5.2 (63% win prob) · Market: TB by 6.5
Moneyline pick: TB (63% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: CLE +6.5 (-110) HIGH Confidence†
Recommended wager: $73.28 (15.3% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 81%
High-confidence lean on CLE to cover as big road underdogs -- Tampa Bay is clearly the better team across ELO, red-zone efficiency, and passing, but the model doesn't think that gap is worth a full 6.5 points.
- Tampa Bay carries a 105-point ELO advantage over Cleveland (1518 vs 1413) and a 70% pre-game win probability.
- Tampa Bay has also been much sharper in the red zone (52% touchdown rate vs 29%) and through the air (+0.008 EPA/play vs -0.253) over the last 8 games.
- Tampa Bay has covered the spread in 62% of its last 8 games, but the model still sees Cleveland as live to cover this large a number.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression74%
Random Forest64%
XGBoost64%
LightGBM42%
Extra Trees67%
PHI @ TEN
Sun Sep 20, 2:00 PM EDT
Model: TEN by -11.4 (32% win prob) · Market: PHI by 5.5
Moneyline pick: PHI (68% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: PHI -5.5 (-110) MEDIUM Confidence†
Recommended wager: $38.02 (7.9% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 67%
Medium-confidence pick on PHI to cover on the road -- a massive 244-point ELO gap and edges across explosiveness, success rate, and rushing efficiency have the model projecting a much bigger Eagles win than the market's 5.5-point line.
- Philadelphia carries a 244-point ELO advantage over Tennessee (1602 vs 1358), and pre-game ELO gives the Titans just a 24% win probability.
- Philadelphia has the edges in offensive success rate (43% vs 37%), explosive-play rate (13% vs 9%), and rushing efficiency (-0.040 EPA/play vs -0.093) over the last 8 games.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression19%
Random Forest29%
XGBoost15%
LightGBM13%
Extra Trees35%
JAX @ DEN
Sun Sep 20, 6:05 PM EDT
Model: DEN by +5.1 (54% win prob) · Market: DEN by 3.0
Moneyline pick: DEN (54% win prob) LOW Confidence†
Spread pick: DEN -3.0 (-108) LOW Confidence†
Recommended wager: $11.39 (2.4% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 56%
Low-confidence pick on DEN to cover at home -- Denver holds the ELO edge, but Jacksonville's better opponent-adjusted rating and offensive efficiency keep the model's confidence limited here.
- Denver carries a 50-point ELO advantage over Jacksonville (1574 vs 1524) and a 63% pre-game win probability.
- Jacksonville has actually rated as the better team once strength of schedule is factored in, outrating Denver by 2.6 points of opponent-adjusted margin (+4.5 vs +1.8).
- Jacksonville also has the edges in offensive EPA per play (+0.080 vs +0.014) and explosive-play rate (15% vs 10%).
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression51%
Random Forest55%
XGBoost62%
LightGBM64%
Extra Trees52%
LV @ LAC
Sun Sep 20, 7:05 PM EDT
Model: LAC by +1.2 (62% win prob) · Market: LAC by 9.5
Moneyline pick: LAC (62% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: LV +9.5 (-112) HIGH Confidence†
Recommended wager: $53.39 (11.1% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 74%
High-confidence lean on LV to cover as big road underdogs -- the Chargers are clearly the better team by ELO and opponent-adjusted rating, but the model doesn't think that gap is worth a full 9.5 points, especially with LA having covered just 38% of its recent spreads.
- The Chargers carry a 150-point ELO advantage over Las Vegas (1517 vs 1367) and a 75% pre-game win probability.
- The Chargers have also rated as the better team once strength of schedule is factored in, outrating Las Vegas by 5.7 points of opponent-adjusted margin (+0.5 vs -5.1).
- Despite that, LA has covered the spread in just 38% of its last 8 games and is playing under a new head coach this season -- the model doesn't think this is a 9.5-point favorite.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression75%
Random Forest62%
XGBoost63%
LightGBM49%
Extra Trees64%
SEA @ ARI
Sun Sep 20, 7:25 PM EDT
Model: ARI by -13.6 (32% win prob) · Market: no line
Moneyline pick: SEA (68% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
No market line is posted yet for this one, but on the moneyline the model likes SEA comfortably -- Seattle carries a massive 220-point ELO edge and has allowed far fewer explosive plays than Arizona.
- Seattle carries a 220-point ELO advantage over Arizona (1629 vs 1409), and pre-game ELO gives the Cardinals just a 26% win probability.
- Seattle's defense has allowed far fewer explosive plays recently (9% vs 15%) over the last 8 games.
- Arizona's case is built around pace and pass-heaviness -- a faster snap rate (25.9s vs 30.0s per play) and a heavier pass rate in neutral scripts (75% vs 57%) -- but not enough to threaten the ELO gap.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression17%
Random Forest31%
XGBoost22%
LightGBM31%
Extra Trees29%
WAS @ DAL
Sun Sep 20, 5:25 PM EDT
Model: DAL by -0.0 (52% win prob) · Market: DAL by 4.5
Moneyline pick: DAL (52% win prob) LOW Confidence†
Spread pick: WAS +4.5 (-110) MEDIUM Confidence†
Recommended wager: $28.39 (5.9% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 64%
Medium-confidence lean on WAS to cover as road underdogs -- Dallas has the recent head-to-head scoring history and a modest ELO edge, but the model doesn't think that's worth a full 4.5 points.
- Over their last 6 meetings, Dallas has outscored Washington by an average of 16.0 points, and Dallas carries a 20-point ELO advantage (1473 vs 1453).
- Dallas has also played at a faster pace recently (26.7s vs 29.0s per play) and has the better offensive success rate (47% vs 45%).
- Washington's one edge is rushing efficiency (-0.028 EPA/play vs -0.037), part of why the model sees the Commanders as live to cover this number.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression45%
Random Forest58%
XGBoost33%
LightGBM49%
Extra Trees55%
MIA @ SF
Sun Sep 20, 7:25 PM EDT
Model: SF by +5.2 (63% win prob) · Market: SF by 11.5
Moneyline pick: SF (63% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: MIA +11.5 (-105) MEDIUM Confidence†
Recommended wager: $42.68 (8.9% of $480.27 paper bankroll, 25% Kelly) · cover probability 69%
Medium-confidence lean on MIA to cover as big road underdogs -- San Francisco is the better team by ELO and pace, but an 11.5-point line is more than the model thinks this gap is worth.
- San Francisco carries a 101-point ELO advantage over Miami (1565 vs 1464) and a 69% pre-game win probability.
- San Francisco has also played at a faster pace recently (29.0s vs 31.4s per play) and allowed a slightly lower success rate (48% vs 49%).
- Miami's one edge is a much higher explosive-play rate (16% vs 10%), part of why the model sees value in the Dolphins getting all those points.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression56%
Random Forest67%
XGBoost68%
LightGBM89%
Extra Trees62%
IND @ KC
Sun Sep 20, 9:20 PM EDT
Model: KC by +6.8 (64% win prob) · Market: KC by 6.5
Moneyline pick: KC (64% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
Spread pick: KC -6.5 (-112) LOW Confidence†
Low-confidence, razor-thin pick on KC to cover at home -- the Chiefs hold the ELO, pass-rush, and pace edges, but the model's projected margin lines up almost exactly with the market's 6.5 points.
- Kansas City carries a 67% pre-game win probability by ELO and the better pass-rush pressure rate (18% vs 10%) over the last 8 games.
- Kansas City has also played at a faster pace (27.1s vs 28.9s per play), with a marginal rushing-efficiency edge (-0.114 vs -0.116 EPA/play).
- Indianapolis' one edge is a higher explosive-play rate (11% vs 8%), not enough to flip the model off Kansas City.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression67%
Random Forest65%
XGBoost82%
LightGBM79%
Extra Trees61%
NYG @ LA
Mon Sep 21, 11:15 PM EDT
Model: LA by +7.1 (63% win prob) · Market: no line
Moneyline pick: LA (63% win prob) MEDIUM Confidence†
No market line is posted yet for this one, but on the moneyline the model favors LA -- the Rams carry a big ELO edge and the Giants face a cross-country, 3+ time-zone trip, even though NYG's opponent-adjusted rating is oddly the better of the two.
- The Rams carry a 165-point ELO advantage over the Giants (1574 vs 1408), and pre-game ELO gives Los Angeles a 77% win probability.
- New York is also traveling west across 3+ time zones for this game.
- Once strength of schedule is factored in, New York actually rates as the better team, outrating Los Angeles by 18.1 points of opponent-adjusted margin (-1.9 vs -20.0) -- a sign the Rams' underlying performance has lagged their record this season.
Per-model breakdown (home win probability)
Logistic Regression49%
Random Forest66%
XGBoost73%
LightGBM80%
Extra Trees70%